Contrary to my forecasts, the gross-domestic-product (GDP) of the United-States increased by 4.3% (at an annualized rate) in the third quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, it had contracted by 0.5%, before rebounding in the second quarter (+3.8%).
But this positive result does not appear to be due to a manufacturing boom, as Trump had promised; it is still too early to see foreign investment in new factories coming back in the United States.
It seems to be due to wealthier consumers, emboldened by a record stock market boom fueled by AI, and the construction of numerous data centers. The wealthiest 10% of taxpayers in the country have opened their wallets to the point of accounting for nearly half of national spending.
Consuming the wealthiest households is up 3.5% at the end of this year. It is this improvement that has driven growth. In other households, fears stemming from high prices and a deteriorating job market, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.6% in November, fears remain strong.
Trump is right: we haven’t seen anything yet. The worst is still to come!