An armed confrontation between the United States and China in the coming decade (or even within three years, before the end of Donald Trump’s term) is very likely.
Why ? Follow the figures !
If the United States had been a large industrial corporation, it would have controlled 50% of the global market in 1945. This share would have been only 25% in 1980. By 2025, after 30 years of uninterrupted Chinese industrialization, it is shrunk to 15%. China is challenging the Americans for global leadership in the fields of electronic chips, electric batteries, space, and the yuan is replacing the dollar in more and more international transactions. Europe and Japan have also contributed to the weakening of the United States’ industrial power, but without ever challenging it politically or in the military field. In particular Europe, which has focused on rebuilding its industrial power, lost in the most stupid war in its whole history, 1914-1945.
On the other hand, Russia is a continental empire (the last of the pre-1914 Central Empires). And in 2025, this imperial/imperialist power truly threatens Europe with invasion. Either because it has now proven incapable of conventionally invading Ukraine and will embark on military adventurism, or because it will do so coldly after a pseudo-peace with the West. That’s why Europe today desperately seeks American assistance and protection. And don’t find them in Donald Trump who’s trapped by his old involvement/friendship with KGB/FSB.
But on the day of confrontation over the Spratlys or Taiwan, when the United States must intervene to honor its defense agreements with Japan and the Philippines, where will Europe be? Will Article 5 of the NATO treaty—the United States attacked in the Pacific—work as it did in 2001, after 9/11, the only time article 5 was used ? Will he drag Europe into open war against China?
One thing is sure : given the lack of enthusiasm (understatement) shown by the Trump administration to resolve the « Russian question » in Europe today, Europe will not (understatement) rush to support United States in its war with China.