The United States produces 400,000 tons of potash and consumes 5.3 million tons (both annually in 2023). They are therefore in deficit and must import the potash consumed by the agriculture from Saskatchewan. Look carefully for this canadian state on the map because that’s where hassle will come from.
American agriculture relies on the Holy Trinity of corn, soybeans and wheat. These crops make it possible to produce bretzels, tacos and red meat. And corn sugar is even used in the formula of Coca-Cola. American food security therefore depends on Canada’s goodwill.
Yet Donald Trump has slapped a punitive 35% tariff on Canadian imports. He has also enact a reduced rate of 10% on US energy and potash imports from Canada. But potash is already in the midst of a financial crisis: prices for delivery by the end of 2025 have soared 18%. The warning is dire : inflation is entering the country by its fertilizers (among other things). American farmers risk paying increasingly high prices for their potash fertilizers. And the entire agricultural production chain will have to pass on this increase.
And be assured that Canada doesn’t need the United States : the Chinese, who also produce potash but not as much as Canada, which holds 40% of the world’s reserves, are ready to import what the United States can no longer pay for. Due to this phony president’s damned customs duties.
What would you do if you were the Canadian government ? I’ll impose a tariff on Canadian potash exports to the United States — and only for Trump’s ugly face — for example a 150% tax, until the American government stops trying to punish me. Because Donald Trump only understands conflict. His art of the deal is actually a Sun Tzu-style art of war, a friend or foe game, applied to economics. Dear canadian friends, play the game by his own stupid rules ! Do it : tax Captain America !